China dominating in rice could offer export opportunities

As it has with different crops, together with cotton, corn and wheat, China is fast changing into the 800-pound gorilla on this planet’s rice markets.Based on what’s happened in recent times, China is now the highest manufacturer, top client, most sensible stockholder, top importer and a “rising exporter” of rice, in step with a USDA Foreign Agriculture Service global economist.

“One thing to note, as was highlighted in the February 2018 Grain World Market and Trade Report, is China has strengthened its importance in global rice trade not only as an importer but now strikingly also as an exporter,” says USDA’s Rachel Trego.

Trego, who is staff chief for food grains analysis at USDA-FAS’ Office of Global Analysis, said China’s exports have been quite restricted on account of the high home rice prices within the country till recent months. Most Chinese exports have tended to be to the nearby regional markets equivalent to South Korea, Mongolia and Hong Kong.

Part of that, Trego says, is that China has begun resuming exports to Africa. “These dwindled and just about were right down to nothing by the point of 2012, but, in 2017, approximately two-thirds of Chinese exports have been to Africa.

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“There have been a couple of reasons they have been able to enable these exports. China has begun to have some more available supplies of some of the multi-year-old rice from the stocks. China is beginning to auction off and have increasing amounts of sales from the auctions of some of the 2013 rice from the government temporary reserves.”

Less from Thailand

Meanwhile, the volume of rice Thailand has been exporting, especially to Africa, has dwindled, as Thailand is left with handiest the no-longer-good-for-human intake rice inside the country’s home shares.

“Given Thailand’s ending of exporting especially low-priced rice to Africa, China has been able to see some in roads into Africa, as well as beyond,” said Trego, who’s a regular contributor to USDA’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates.

“Notably, China’s average export price as reported by China’s custom data developed precipitously in 2017, and this has been quite interesting in that the Chinese customs data also shows that the exports have primarily been of medium-grain rice. Seeing prices in the $500 per range on average for total exports is certainly a shift from where they have been in the past.”

With China changing into a most sensible importer of rice, as neatly, U.S. growers are asking the place the U.S. stands on its skill to faucet into the Chinese import marketplace, which prior to now has been confined basically to within sight rice-producing nations such as Burma and Cambodia.

“USDA has been working actively on a phytosanitary protocol for access of rice to China, and this process has lasted for more than a decade,” Trego mentioned. “On the U.S. aspect, USDA’s Animal Plant Health Inspection Service has been running with the AQSIQ, the related agency in China. We had it signed a couple years ago at the technical stage, however we have been looking forward to it to be signed at the political degree, which was in the end achieved in 2017.

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“Although the phytosanitary protocol has been signed, there remain a few steps, including a questionnaire that has been sent to the United States regarding some of the facilities as well as audits,” Trego famous. “While the phytosanitary protocol has been signed, there are still some steps to take before we can begin to see U.S. shipments of rice to China.”

Judging from Chinese home prices relative to one of the most California export costs, U.S. export quotes from time to time were less than Chinese retail prices. “That may suggest some opportunities to be able to ship to China if given the opportunity once the phytosanitary protocol and the necessary arrangements are accomplished,” Trego said.

Types of rice

During the query and answer consultation of the webinar, Trego used to be requested what kinds of U.S. rice could be aggressive in China’s markets?

“The predominant suppliers right now to the China market have been some of the neighboring countries that are sending long-grain rice,” she stated. “As noted from that exporter export quote chart previous, the Asian costs for long-grain are somewhat somewhat lower than those for the U.S.

“So for long-grain it would primarily be focusing on some of the high-end and niche markets. China has been importing, especially because of price, but also because of concerns on food safety, and so really targeting the high end would be helpful for that on long grain.”

For the medium- and short-grain, China has a Tariff Rate Quota for medium-grain, and the U.S. is a foremost medium-grain exporter and is reasonably competitive. “Given the price chart I shared earlier for Chinese retail versus U.S. prices, given the limited competition from other medium-grain suppliers in that market, there could be some great opportunities.”

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